Lilla Hortoványi

Strategy Without Templates

Adaptation in Digital Environments

11.2.4 Beyond Transparent Feedback: Learning Under Epistemic Opacity

A foundational assumption of strategy theory is that firms learn through feedback loops in which action produces observable results that inform subsequent action (Cyert & March, 1963). This learning model assumes a degree of causal transparency, that firms can observe outcomes, attribute them to specific actions, and adjust their behavior accordingly. Even theories that acknowledge causal ambiguity (Lippman & Rumelt, 1982) assume that firms can eventually discern patterns and build causal understanding through repeated observation and experimentation.

The concept of feedback without control developed in Chapter 9 challenges this assumption. It shows that in digital environments mediated by algorithmic systems, firms receive abundant signals but lack the causal transparency necessary for traditional learning. Platforms filter, shape, and partly generate the feedback firms receive, introducing multiple layers of opacity (Gillespie, 2014). Firms can observe outcomes – rankings, visibility, conversion rates – but they cannot fully see the mechanisms producing those outcomes (Diakopoulos, 2015). Algorithmic systems are proprietary, frequently updated, and governed by external actors whose priorities may not align with the firm’s interests (Addo, 2022; Clough et al., 2020).

This creates a fundamentally different learning condition. Firms must adapt through inferential calibration rather than causal explanation. They develop “folk theories” about how algorithmic systems function (Möhlmann et al., 2021): working hypotheses that are imperfect and provisional but good enough to guide action. Learning becomes a matter of detecting patterns in noisy data, forming tentative interpretations, testing them through small adjustments, and revising assumptions based on observed effects. Knowledge remains incomplete and subject to sudden shifts when platforms’ algorithms or governance rules change

This reconceptualization extends organizational learning theory into new territory. It suggests that learning does not always depend on understanding causal mechanisms. Firms can adapt effectively even when they lack full comprehension of why their actions produce particular outcomes. What matters is not causal knowledge, but workable sensitivity to signals and the capacity to adjust behavior in response to observed patterns. This has profound implications for how we understand organizational intelligence, strategic capability, and competitive advantage in algorithmically mediated environments.

These four reconceptualizations – of strategic contexts, strategic mechanisms, organizational form, and learning conditions – together constitute a fundamental theoretical reorientation. They do not simply extend existing frameworks to accommodate new empirical phenomena. They challenge core assumptions that have structured strategy theory for decades and open new analytical terrain for understanding how strategy operates under conditions of deep uncertainty, structural constraint, and epistemic opacity.

Tartalomjegyzék

Kiadó: Akadémiai Kiadó

Online megjelenés éve: 2026

ISBN: 978 963 664 204 4

Gazdaság

What happens when understanding comes only after action has already begun?

Traditional strategy rests on the assumption that organizations can understand their environment before deciding how to act. Yet the conditions that once allowed organizations to rely on benchmarking, best practices, and proven strategic templates can no longer be taken for granted. Today, organizations increasingly face situations for which no clear roadmap exists. Established assumptions become less reliable, familiar reference points lose their clarity, and strategic decisions must be made before their consequences can be fully understood.

Strategy Without Templates explores how organizations learn, adapt, and navigate environments in which uncertainty is pervasive and established templates are absent or no longer sufficient. Instead of treating strategy as a process of prediction and planning, the book explores how strategic paths take shape through action, experimentation, adjustment, and learning.

A central insight in the book is that temporary solutions are often necessary. What begins as a practical response to an immediate challenge may gradually shape future possibilities in unexpected ways. Some solutions create new opportunities and sources of advantage. Others become constraints that are difficult to overcome.

Hivatkozás: https://mersz.hu/hortovanyi-strategy-without-templates//

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